Monday, November 21, 2011

My friend bought a car with cash today

Well, it was a proud day for a friend. A family friend, just out of college and in the first year of working, bought a car today. After a few months of thinking about it and counting his dollars, he came to the conclusion that it made the most sense to save up and pay cash for his first vehicle. I am very proud of his decision. Now, he has some significant debt from college so not adding to it with car loan makes sense..but not everyone sees things that way.  One argument for buying a cheaper used card that I think made sense to him, was that he realized that if you buy a newer car and pay a loan on it for 5 years, then after 5 years you will be driving the same car you refused to buy today. Only, not only will you be driving an old used car but you will have paid a lot of money for it plus a lot of interest. If you're going to end up in a used car in a few years, wouldn't it make sense to just buy that used car now?  Also, the amount of depreciation from years 5-10 is not only a lower percentage but also a lower dollar amount than the depreciation of years 1-5.

The car he bought today is a 2004 model, which makes it about 7 years old. He'll see some depreciation if it he keeps it 5 years but not nearly the depreciation he'd see if he bought a much newer and more expensive car. Overall buying newer cars is not "bad" but it is pretty ridiculous when you have a negative net worth and little cash on hand.

I like to suggest the beable buy it twice rule. You should have enough money in the bank in real accessible cash to be able to purchase your car 2x over. If you have 2 cars then you'd need their total value x 2. The reason for this rule is two-fold. One, by postponing gratification and creating the habit of saving, you will value the dollars you spend more. You will grow to like and enjoy the feeling of having a good amount of cash in the bank. You will realize that the car purchase is not as much a purchase as it is a "trade". You are trading your earned cash for the car. Once you buy the car, the cash goes away. If you spend your cash as soon as you collect it, you will of course have 100x more feeling for that cash then when you spend borrowed money, but you won't have as much discipline as when you save 2x the purchase amount.  The second reason for saving your cash until you have 2x the purchase amount is that at that point you can drop comprehensive insurance on your car. You don't need to protect yourself from having to replace your car because you have the cash to replace your car. This means that if you drive your car into a tree and ruin it, then you can go out and buy another car. If you can't do this, then you have to pay for full coverage insurace on your car. You of course must have full coverage if you borrow to buy you car because the bank that lent you the money knows for a fact that you can't pay for a new car. How do they know you can't pay for a new car?...well, you couldn't pay for the first one..which is why you came to them to borrow for it.

Some people will say "if I don't have full coverage and I do get in a wreck, then I'll have to pay for the repairs"..to which I say the same thing I say regarding "free" public education..."trust me, you're still paying for it".  Firstly, if you have to carry more insurance then you are paying more in premiums. If enough years pass without making a claim, then the insurance company wins..which of course they do most of the time because after all they are a business that requires profits to survive. Then, if you do make a claim, the insurance company is likely to still win because a) they collect your deductible first and b) they can raise your rates. Over time, just like gambling in a casino.. you will loose..because the game is designed for you to loose. The only way to beat a casino is to not go into it or to own it. The only way to beat an insurance company is to not use it or own it. The more you can take on the risk by reducing coverage and raising your deductible, the less you are using the insurance company and the more you are acting link your own insurance company. Of course you are required by law to carry liability insurance and so you must. In fact, you might want to carry a good bit more liability than requried by law. Supppose you take out a van of students on a mission trip or a bus. If you do $50,000 of damage to 7 people plus a $20,000 damage to a vehicle, then you're going to need to pay up a great deal more than the minimum liability required coverage. However, if you have millions in the bank, you again can self insure this aspect and only carry the required liability amount.

A few years ago my wife's $2,000 Saturn sedan with absolutely no features except the manual transmission (She preferred a manual and I could see mini-vans in her 20 year horizon, so I figured I better get her that 5 speed now), got broken into. The thiefs stole maybe $200 in music CDs, tools, and other stuff in the car. They didn't take the change in the cup holder for some reason.  Well, if we had super full coverage and a $100 deductible, then we could have made a claim and gotten $100 from the insurance company. However, over years and years of only carrying liability, we've saved thousands of dollars in insurance. So, when it came time to replace the items in the car, we just replaced them. We functioned as our own insurance company. Statistics being what they are..we are still way ahead over time and will likely continue to win in this game.

When deciding what car to buy or more importantly, deciding how much to spend, remember to take a little snapshot of your net worth. Your net worth is how much money you have. It also includes other assets like your house and usually it includes cars and furniture and stuff. I don't like to count my cars and furniture. For one, neither are worth that much in my case so why count pennies when you're busy counting Benjamins. Secondly, my used furniture and cars don't really make ore save me much money month to month. They are just things I have to have to function.  Now, a house saves me money each month in rent. And, stocks and businesses generally make me money each month and year, so they really should be counted. Also, it is these assets that make money that will allow you to quit working someday and retire. You can't retire off the value of your DVD collection.

So, to arrive at your net worth, add up the value of any real estate, businesses, stocks, and other bank accounts you own. Then subtract from that hopefully hefty total, any debt you owe (credit cards, school loans, car loans, store card balances, medical bills, and home mortgage). If you end up with a negative number you have a negative net worth. You might be poorer than most homeless people. Think about that while you treat yourself to $9.00 drinks at the bar on Friday night. If you have a positive net worth then you can start to compare the purchase of your new car to your net worth. If you're net worth is $5,000 because you have no debt and $5,000 in the bank, then you might end up spending 100% of your net worth on car. This is not ideal but sometimes necessary for a first car purchase. Later on, you'll want to always be reducing the % of net worth you spend on everything. Imagine how freeing it would feel, and how much my no full coverage auto insurance make sense, if you have a net worth of $300,000 and you buy a $10,000 car. The car will be 3.3% of your net worth. You can re purchase that car 33 times over. I like that feeling. You can apply this to anything...furniture, college tuition, clothing, vacation spending. Lets briefly look at vacation spending. If you have a net worth of $10,000 because you owe $20,000 to your college loans and auto loan  and you also have $30,000 in retirement savings, then a $5,000 vacation is 50% of your net worth. Think about it 1/2 of your total financial worth spent on vacation!

You can also play the percentage game in relation to income. How much do you spend on vacation per year in relation to your annual income? I try to keep my vacation to 5% or less of income. As time goes on, this should be a decreasing % of net worth. Imagine the power of your net worth growing faster than all of your budget items. This will undoubtedly happen if you invest well and continue to make savings your #1 budget itme. If you save 30% of your income and spend 5% on your vacations, then over time, your vacations will be smaller and smaller portions of your net worth. Eventually your net worth will grow much more on its own than you spend on vacation. When your net worth grows more on its own than you spend on all of your expenses, then you are officially able to retire...as you won't need to produce earned income any longer. Your investment income will pay the way. And, to bring it back to the car purchase...the day of arriving at retirement is brought closer the less you spend on your vehicles and the more you spend on savings.


Friday, November 18, 2011

How I made money with CSCO this year

Well, throughout 2011 I told my friends to buy CSCO. I'm not sure if they took action, but I'll show you my transaction history over the past 12 months with CSCO. I bought on Nov 12, 2011 at $20.07. I then sold on January 12,2011 for $21.07. The gain was 4.7% in 2 months, and I was happy. Then in February the stock price fell again, so I bought at 19.11, lower than my last buy in. I was happy again. However, CSCO kept going down, and I didn't understand why. The company was profitable and #1 in the industry. So, I bought more a few weeks later at 18.40 and told my friends to buy. They were probably glad they didn't because by march 17 the price was at 17.14. Still thinking it was a good deal,  I did what any value investor would do..I bought more and told my friends to buy. Well, June brought even lower prices of $15.22 and bought at that point too. The stock price went even went lower but I held back as I was at my capacity for any one stock at the time. However, as I imagined, CSCO came back. On Nov 10, I sold at 18.75 for a 8.9% gain plus a collection of about 1% in dividends throughout the year. In the end, I made a 9.8% return with a total hold time of 8 months from the first buy and only 4 months from the last buy. The gain on that last trade was 23%. I was hoping for a 10% gain overall, so I am happy with how it transpired. I was hoping to gain the 10%  in 4 months and not 8, but to do it in less than 12 months is good in my books. I'll be keeping my eye out for another CSCO crash. I'll let you know.

RIG (Transocean) buy for Nov 21,2011

RIG (Transocean) is by far my stock pick for Nov 21, 2011. Firstly, The Ex-dividend date for RIG is Nov 22. The dividend yield for the price at the close of Friday is %6.66. The upcomingdividend payment will offer a 1.67% return. The stock is at a 52 week low of $47.47 with a 52 week high of $85.98. This is a big profitable company that provides oil rigs. They were involved with the RIG that exploded last summer with BP. This incident has provided a lot of swinging in this trustworthy stock that has been fun to trade over and over. I am long this position.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Using Zecco as my broker

I use Zecco.com as my online trading broker. I like their $4.50 fees and fairly easy to use interface. To be honest, they are the only company I've used to trade stocks. I originally choose Zecco because they use to offer 10 free trades per month if you carried a balanceof $25,000 or more. I don't trade that much right now, so free trades sounded perfect. They've since stopped that offering but $4.50 seems pretty low compared to other players. I've had no trouble transferring money into Zecco from my bank account. They are currently offering $100 reward to both me and anyone else who signs up through my refer a friend link. So, please let me know if you'd like to receive this $100.  I have to send you a special link and you have to deposit $10,000. Happy Trading.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

How I pick stocks with Google Finance


Google Finance is my tool of choice for watching stocks. I regularly visit the home page of Google Finance to read headlines. I found my current list of stocks that I watch by going down to the summary of big movers for the the day. I began looking for big loosers..10, 20, 30% loosers. I would then check to see if any of these really big loosers were profitable companies. Many aren't, but some are. Of course BP made the list durign the oil spill. By following and buying BP, I learned about RIG (Transocean). I bought CASH (Meta Financial Group) because it lost 30% in one day. Now, it went on to loose 20% more so that wasn't fun. But, I held to my guns and ending up selling it for a 10% gain in 6 months. It was a good buy at that 30% discount..i just should have waited for the sale to run its course. So, check out the Google Finance big loosers and see if any of them are on there for a silly reason. I also bouht a bunch of education stocks that showed up on the list one month. They were profitable companies and the stocks all came back.

I also like using the Google Finance portolio. I keep my live trades in there to quickly check their status throughout the day. I've also added about 10 other stocks I'm watching. Some fade in and out of the portfolio, but most stay for regular monitoring...just waiting for a sale.

I also really like being able to check on the fundamentals in a matter of seconds by using the graphs Google Finance creates on the balance sheet and profit/loss pages.